Global primary aluminium production continued to grow modestly through the first nine months of 2025, but the pace has slowed significantly compared to the previous year. According to data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), total output reached 55.11 million tonnes from January to September 2025, up 1.26% from 54.43 million tonnes during the same period in 2024.
In contrast, production during the first nine months of 2024 had risen 3.36% year-on-year, signaling a noticeable slowdown this year. Analysts attribute the weaker growth to China’s near-capacity production levels, ongoing energy challenges in Australia, and North America’s shift toward secondary aluminium.
During the third quarter of 2025, global aluminium production reached 18.62 million tonnes, increasing slightly by 1.33% from the previous quarter. However, monthly production in September dropped by 3.12% to 6.08 million tonnes, marking one of the lowest figures of the year.
China, which contributes more than half of global primary aluminium output, produced 11.17 million tonnes in the third quarter — up just 1.38% from the previous quarter, reflecting the limited headroom left under its 45-million-tonne capacity cap.
Despite steady expansion in some regions, industry experts expect global growth to remain moderate for the rest of the year, constrained by high energy prices and environmental restrictions on smelter operations.
Source: AL Circle, data from IAI
Nov 6, 2025